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© 1995 Oxford University Press

research-article

Predictors of Hospital Contact by Very Elderly People: A Pilot Study from a Cohort of People aged 75 years and over

L. Y. CHI, C. BRAYNE, C. J. TODD, D. W. O'CONNOR and P. A. POLLITT

Department of Community Medicine, University of Cambridge Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 2SR
Department of Psychological Medicine, Monash University Australia
NH and MRC Social Psychiatry Unit, The Australian National University Australia

We wished to test the hypothesis that elderly people with impaired cognitive function were heavier users of both outpatient and inpatient hospital services. In a retrospective cohort study, 144 elderly people aged 75–97 years (50 men and 94 women) identified from a prevalence survey of dementia were traced over an average period of 4 years. They were categorized into three groups: cognitively impaired, physically frail and physically healthy.

Elderly people with impaired cognitive function had fewer contacts with outpatient services (p = 0.0003) but did not differ in inpatient service use from subjects with normal cognitive function. Cognitively impaired people who lived alone had longer hospital stays (p = 0.002) and a higher admission rate to geriatric wards (p = 0.009). Negative self-rated health was an important factor predicting more contacts for men with inpatient services and geriatric outpatient services (both p = 0.002). Use of surgical outpatient services was associated with use of surgical inpatient services by the physically healthy group only (p = 0.0003). After adjusting for age, sex and physical health, cognitively impaired subjects were nearly twice as likely to die within four years as the other two groups (RR = 1.89).

Revision received November 26, 1994.
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