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Age and Ageing 2001; 30: 473-476
© 2001, British Geriatrics Society

Research papers

Risk communication and older people—understanding of probability and risk information by medical inpatients aged 75 years and older

Richard Fuller, Nigel Dudley1 and Jon Blacktop2

Department of Elderly Medicine, Huddersfield Royal Infirmary, Acre Street, Lindley, Huddersfield HD3 3EW, UK
1 Elderly Services, St James's University Hospital, Leeds, UK
2 School of Computing and Mathematics, University of Huddersfield, Huddersfield, UK

Abstract

Objective: to determine older people's understanding of probability and risk information, and the impact of pictorial representation of risk.

Design: a researcher-administered questionnaire.

Subjects: 50 inpatients aged >=75 years on elderly medicine wards at Huddersfield Royal Infirmary, Huddersfield, UK.

Results: older people understand percentage probability better than fractional probability, and a wide range of incorrect responses indicated significant over- and underestimation of probabilities. Visual data about percentages were well received and understood, and were perceived as a good idea by participants.

Conclusions: we have demonstrated a wide variation in understanding of risk and probability information by older people, with over- and underestimations of probability, along with confusion between fractional and percentage probability. Pictorial representation of probability was well understood. It could be developed as a simple, yet powerful communication tool to be used in daily clinical practice to help older people understand information on risks and benefits when making decisions about treatment choices.

Keywords: older people, probability, risk, understanding, visual data


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