© 1978 Oxford University Press
research-article |
ENVIRONMENT, TEMPERATURE AND DEATH RATES
Clinical Research Centre Harrow, Middlesex HA1 3UJ
Analysis of recorded monthly deaths in England and Wales shows a close association of death rates with external temperature in most diseases other than the cancers.
Analysis of daily deaths in England and Wales and in New York shows the following relationships between temperature and deaths from myocardial infarction, strokes and pneumonia. Between –10° and +20°C minimum temperature there is a nearly linear fall in deaths as the temperature rises. Above 20°C deaths rise steeply as the temperature rises and below – 10°C rise steeply as temperature falls. These associations of deaths with temperature are much stronger in the elderly than in younger subjects.
Detailed analysis of the daily deaths in England and Wales from myocardial infarction, strokes and pneumonia show that short-term (1–2 days) temperature changes have little effect on death rates but medium-term (7–10 days) and longer-term (three or more weeks) changes are associated with very significant changes in death rates.
The three diseases vary in the time relations between temperature change and change in deathrates. In all three there is an interval between the change in temperature and death and this is shortest in the case of myocardial infarction (1–2 days before death), longest in the case of pneumonia (about a week before death) and intermediate in the case of strokes (about 3–4 days before death).
At low temperatures death rates increase as the duration of temperature change increases, while at high temperatures (but below +20°C) death rates decrease as the period of temperature change is longer.
The implications of these findings are discussed and it is postulated that there is probably a causal relationship between temperature change and deaths from a wide variety of diseases. Aproximal link in the chain is probably a failure of autonomic control of body temperature in the elderly leading to a change in body temperature and some humoral change which in turn leads to death. It is not appropriate to concentrate on hypothermia as the relationship between temperature and death is seen at all temperatures.
CiteULike 
Connotea 
Del.icio.us What's this?
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
 |
|
  L. Bokenes, J. B. Mercer, S. MacEvilly, J. F. Andrews, and R. Bolle Annual variations in indoor climate in the homes of elderly persons living in Dublin, Ireland and Tromso, Norway Eur J Public Health, August 18, 2009; (2009) ckp109v1. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 T. A. Reichert, L. Simonsen, A. Sharma, S. A. Pardo, D. S. Fedson, and M. A. Miller Influenza and the Winter Increase in Mortality in the United States, 1959-1999 Am. J. Epidemiol., September 1, 2004; 160(5): 492 - 502. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 R. Basu and J. M. Samet Relation between Elevated Ambient Temperature and Mortality: A Review of the Epidemiologic Evidence Epidemiol. Rev., December 1, 2002; 24(2): 190 - 202. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 J.P. Pell and S.M. Cobbe Seasonal variations in coronary heart disease QJM, December 1, 1999; 92(12): 689 - 696. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
|
|
F. De Lorenzo, V. Sharma, M. Scully, and V.V. Kakkar Cold adaptation and the seasonal distribution of acute myocardial infarction QJM, December 1, 1999; 92(12): 747 - 751. [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 T. Sheth, C. Nair, J. Muller, and S. Yusuf Increased winter mortality from acute myocardial infarction and stroke: the effect of age J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., June 1, 1999; 33(7): 1916 - 1919. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 G C Donaldson, S P Ermakov, Y M Komarov, C P McDonald, and W R Keatinge Cold related mortalities and protection against cold in Yakutsk, eastern Siberia: observation and interview study BMJ, October 10, 1998; 317(7164): 978 - 982. [Abstract] [Full Text]
|
|
|
|
|
|
G C Donaldson, V E Tchernjavskii, S P Ermakov, K Bucher, and W R Keatinge Winter mortality and cold stress in Yekaterinburg, Russia: interview survey BMJ, February 14, 1998; 316(7130): 514 - 518. [Abstract] [Full Text]
|
|
|
|
|
|
M. Bobak and A. Roberts Heterogeneity of air pollution effects is related to average temperature BMJ, November 1, 1997; 315(7116): 1161 - 1161. [Full Text]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 D. G. Tout Biometeorology Progress in Physical Geography, December 1, 1987; 11(4): 473 - 486. [PDF]
|
|