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Age and Ageing Advance Access published online on December 6, 2007
Age and Ageing, doi:10.1093/ageing/afm171
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Copyright © The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society.

Self-rated health and a healthy lifestyle are the most important predictors of survival in elderly women

Jessica Ford, Melanie Spallek and Annette Dobson

School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Queensland, Herston, QLD 4006, Australia

Address correspondence to: Melanie Spallek. Tel: +61 (0)7 334 64691; Fax: +61 (0)7 3365 5540. Email: m.spallek{at}sph.uq.edu.au

Objective: to test the hypothesis that morbidity and health related behavioural factors are stronger than social factors as predictors of death among older women.

Methods: we used data from 12,422 participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health who were aged 70–75 in 1996. Proportional hazards models of survival up to 31 October 2005 were fitted separately for the whole cohort and those women who were initially in ‘good health’.

Results: among the whole cohort, 18.7% died during the follow_up period. The strongest predictor of death was ‘poor’ or ‘fair’ self-rated health (with 52.3% and 28.0%, respectively, of women in these categories dying). Among the women in ‘good health’ at baseline 11.5% died, with current cigarette smoking (hazard ratio HR = 2.19, 95% confidence interval (1.71, 2.81), physical inactivity (HR = 1.45 (1.17, 1.81)), and age (HR = 1.10 (1.04, 1.16) per year) as statistically significant predictors of death.

Discussion: among older women, current health and health related behaviours are stronger predictors than social factors of relatively early mortality. Adopting a healthier lifestyle, by doing more exercise and not smoking, is beneficial even in old age.

Keywords: self-rated health, survival, elderly women, predictors, elderly

Received 29 April 2007; accepted in revised form 17 September 2007.


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